one year on.. do you think the economy is better?

[leobox1]

what are your thoughts?

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The articles are simple to read and understand.

[orb3000]

I am not a pesimistic person, but at least on my country, the economic recesion is far away from see the light...

Hard times correspond to working harder!:rolleyes:

[khalid2001]

the economy is getting worse and worse every day in every country i think we should go to space and make new countries now:D

[telegraph0000]

I'm proof that the economy is in the dumps.
At home enjoying time with my little ones...
HotJobbing, Craiglistin', Careerbuilding, Indeeding, sleeping...
Aaaahhhh....this is the life...
2 months and counting...


No rush.

[augie7107]

Simply stated, the economy is getting worse.
Creditors are becoming more stringent as are people with expendable capital.
We're in for the long haul.

[orelsi]

Worse. Read up.

[telegraph0000]

what are your thoughts?

Sorry...but what do you mean by "One year on?" This situation we're all in has been brewing since 2006...it's just the lame terminology of what a recession is (a widespread decline in the GDP and employment and trade lasting from six months to a year). I worked with the building trade (provided tools and equipment) and we could see the slow decline in building around the last quarter in 2006. This was a sign that there was something going on...and of course the 5 year mark on ARM loans for homes was just a nail in the economic coffin. People being given homes that banks knew they could not afford--lying--err..."Underwriting" assets to inflate a person's assets so they could get a bigger loan. So...here we are with
-people living in apartments,
-working hard to get a condo or a townhouse for $120K in 2000,
-smiling in 2002 at the inflated equity their $425K home currently has,
-Using said equity to purchase a $700K house at ARM and paying only $2K a month
-Realizing that the 5 years is up and that their loan has now skyrocketed to $5K a month
-Not being able to afford such a payment, $300K in equity down the drain...
-back in an apartment.

Very sad, but I'm sure you know of at least on of these situations...

For those that are having trouble paying their home (at no fault of their own) such as loss of income, disability, hardship...Google up HAM loan modification...
might help...

[galaxys]

what are your thoughts?

Unfortunately, the picture is not as rosey as the government & wallstreet want U to beleave. We have a long way to go for paying down the deposite and creating good jobs!

[Rudegar]

I am a pesimistic person
but I say it may have gotten a bit better

but the damage don with companys going under
and people being fired have not peeked yet nor is it likely
to this year

[samy.3660]

In India, i think we have not even seen as such as being seen by Americans.
Lots of Indian shifting back to India from America. But nonetheless we have seen some decline in sales and jobs markets, but not as much as in abroad.

[leobox1]

guess on the ground, things are still tough..

then its scary to see the markets value going up these days again as it may
be a bubble again...

[Rudegar]

when you hit rock bottom there is only up to go
think it got some raising to do before it could be a bubble
because now most is worth more then you can get for it

[stylez]

Still stuck in the rut no job not prospects no future ;) "yeah i'm making a joke" but infact i have seen no change in the current climate with work being the bigest was made redundant and the field i work in is a bismal "in my location" and has been since the day i had to leave........

Fix Up........... Look Sharpe........

Things can only get better :)

[orb3000]

+1!!
That´s the positive thinking!!

Cheers for that!

[leobox1]

oil is now at $70+

way above the low of $30+

[mrcrassic]

Unemployment index is still very high, and many companies are still a bit hesitant about hiring. However, Dow Jones is moving up (though it might just be a slight bit of higher confidence), the housing market is slowly recovering (though bad mortgages are still being collected, and "big banks" are still writing them off), hiring is looking somewhat positive for the first time in a while and consumer confidence is starting to pick up again (retail is looking good again, meaning people are spending more).

Nobody's really sure whether this is the light at the end of the tunnel, but it might be a little break from the storm.

[newuser888]

I think many factors are behind the share rally. The cash for clunkers program is one. The Chinese government's forcing its bank to lend is another. Then, there is also the issue of financial institution given the leeway to value the toxic assets as anyting they want once again which mask the problems. Add to that the massive money printing by the US government, and some of those money are now propping up the US share market.
Bank CEO's are doing anything in their power (including cooking their books) to justify paying themselves obscene bonuses once again.

When the Chinese government forced the State controlled banks to lend, there is no actual demand by businesses or individuals to borrow it. After all the export market is shrinking rapidly. But since the order from the top must be followed, the banks have to bribe the borrowers to accept the loan. These loans ended up in risky properties, shares, and commodity futures bets and gambles. We already see how the Shanghai A share plunged 20% within a few days recently when the Chinese goverment announced that it is "finetuning" its lending policy. The Chinese has yet to learn to spell bubbles but I think it is definitely forming and that will in turn send a shockwave throughout the world.

Unemployment is still worsening, not geting better. The loan defaults in US is now a more serious problem in the primed mortgage area, even surpassing that in the subprime mortage area. The banks are once again packaging extremely risky assets and try to market them to unsuspecting investors all over again.

According to some reports, the insiders are throwing out their own share at the ratio of 8:1 (for every share they buy, they're selling 8), while the fools are being sucked in once again.

Unfortunately, retail investors will never learn. Memory is short. The reason is we're all driven by greed. Many are investing purely with a herd's mentality. Once again, they're not happy with a small trading profit and try to hold it longer for larger gain. Once again, they may find out that when the market head for the exit again, they can't sell it fast enough as the big guys who have everything computerised.

There is so much spin going around in the market, with so many experts telling us that the economy has recovered. They won't tell you about 77 (edit: Just read from Bloomberg that it is now 84 in the year 2009) US banks have already collapsed this year. According to a very famous analyst, hundreds more are heading that way. They manipulate the unemployment figures to make it look less worst than it actually is. They are trying to encourage private investor to buy up those lousy banks with worthless assets.

I think the world is now characterised by the Chinese doing all the hardwork for the West to enjoy, and their money are still with the west in the form of investments that they are stuck with. This was the great imbalance that, unless corrected, will continue to worsen the problem of the world. This imbalance is unsustainable.

The "stimulus" is no stimulus that resume the heatbeat when removed. It is more like a crutch, which remove, the patient collapses once again.

The world needs reform. The imbalance needs to be addressed. The Chinese/Japanese/Indian must start consuming more and save less. The West must start consuming less and save more. There is also progressively more imbalance in the world in terms of pay. Just look at what the greedy CEOs are getting compared to the ordinary workers. As a result, the purchasing power of the masses, hence consumption power in the economy, will suffer.

Just my 2 cents.

[leobox1]

newsuser, nice read :)


S&P500 is now above 1000

[mandycandy]

I think economy will recover at least a little bit in the next year. Of course recovering from what happened is hard and takes several years but I am quite positive that it will go up again, at least because everyone tightened their belts a little bit. I think that was kind of an important lesson learned for our society. Not everything works out the way we want forever.

[leobox1]

s&p500 is now around 1060 .. rather fast do u folks think?

[Hannigan174]

Stock markets are an indicator of what people expect future corporate earnings to be. It is not a strong indicator of overall economic health. Often rapidly increasing stock prices are merely a greedy desire to see increases in investments not a valid indicator of future profitability. Often corporate profitability is not a good indicator of overall financial or economic well-being either.

My total view of the economic situation would far too long (and probably boring for most of you) for me to expound much further. Keep in mind, however, that if you think about real income (people's buying power), unemployment rates (real and adjusted for partial employment and falling out of the job market), and consumer confidence it is painfully apparent that we are still deep in the throes of a "recession" (at least in the U.S. where I am) and that government officers that have been saying for the last 8 months that the recession is over are only trying to increase confidence in an effort to spur private investment and prevent banking collapses.

In conclusion, there is absolutely no way that I can consider this recession anywhere near over.

[leobox1]

i also feel that with unemployment high, how can we be out of recession

[april09]

I think the economy is better, at least in China, because I am still busy with my work. With the efforts of the government and ourselves, we will walk out of recession.

[Limlin]

Who knows. The unemploy rate is still high and many graduates hardly find a good job. I still don't have year-end bonus. And we owe China a lot of money. Hope economy getting better asap....

[telegraph0000]

I think the economy is better, at least in China, because I am still busy with my work. With the efforts of the government and ourselves, we will walk out of recession.

Isn't the suicide rate high over there? Or is it Japan...don't remember...one of these two places has a room where people can scream their heads off while throwing dishes against the wall to relieve stress...

And NO the economy is not better...going on the 4th month and Icm still out of a job!!!!! Who knew there were so many HR Admins out of a job....

[Limlin]

Isn't the suicide rate high over there? Or is it Japan...don't remember...one of these two places has a room where people can scream their heads off while throwing dishes against the wall to relieve stress...

And NO the economy is not better...going on the 4th month and Icm still out of a job!!!!! Who knew there were so many HR Admins out of a job....

In Japan the suicide rate is the highest. Yes, I saw these kind of room there and you can ram the door or the TV but after that you have to pay for the damage. I was out of job from March to July.....but now it's better cause I got a job.

[newuser888]

Australia is supposed to be the least affected developed country. But read this report here to see the actual situation:

This is reported in http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/hard-times-hit-one-in-three-families-20091012-gtlv.html

QUOTE

One in three Australian families have had bills they couldn't pay, pawned goods or went without meals in the past six months, new government research shows.

A survey of 1,650 families across Australia aiming to measure the impact of the global financial crisis showed that 34 per cent of families reported having at least one financial hardship in the past six months.

Hardships included being unable to pay gas, electricity and water bills on time (21 per cent), seeking financial assistance from friends or family (15 per cent), pawning or selling goods (10 per cent), being unable to pay rent or mortgage on time (8 per cent), seeking help from community centres (5 per cent), going without meals (4 per cent) and being unable to heat their home (4 per cent).

Speaking after Community Services Minister Jenny Macklin announced $12 million for emergency relief centres, Melbourne's Prahran Mission chief executive Quinn Pawson said his centre saw 50 per cent more people seeking emergency relief in the past year than in previous years.

Many were people who had previously been employed but were laid off in the crisis.

"What we're seeing now is people who have been in the workforce, successfully been in the workforce, and now they are not," Mr Pawson told reporters.

"And we see that with people in the hospitality industry, people from the manufacturing industry and they are incredibly vulnerable in the current circumstances."

The survey, conducted by the Department of Families, Housing, Community Services and Indigenous Affairs, was conducted in May and June 2009.

Those surveyed had an average annual household income of between $50,000 to $80,000.

The survey found more than 15 per cent of families experienced multiple financial hardships and for most, it was the first time they had experienced them.

For 77 per cent of those who could not pay their rent or mortgage on time, it was the first time they had not made their payments.

Of those who went without meals, pawned something or were unable to heat their homes, about 70 per cent had never done so before.

Mr Pawson believed it would be another 12 to 18 months before things picked up for people in the casual workforce, because employers were "still being careful about how many new people they put on".

He said it would be a positive if the government could contain unemployment, which dropped in September from 5.8 per cent to 5.7 per cent.

"We see the reality of unemployment every day, we see the devastating effect on individuals and on families and on communities," he said.

"So anything to reduce that, I think is a very, very good thing.

UNQUOTE

[leobox1]

i think the economy is still bad.. the only reason why things seem good is the government's $$$

[leobox1]

and US unemployment is at decades HIGH !

[Ed Zachary]

To answer the question in the topic title: it depends upon your definition of the term "the economy".

If by "the economy" you mean the flow of money from the perspective of millionaires, Wall Street mavens, and other people who do not rely upon the well-being of the everyday man in the street, the answer is a resounding, "Oh, YES! The recession is OVER! Things are improving on a daily basis."

If, however, by "the economy" you mean the flow of money and goods among everyday people worldwide, you just need to look around and see that a record number of people are without income, housing, food, and clothing and say, "Nope. Still on a downward spiral."

[Bulldog]

Now most of us find out that we were living in a beautiful bubble which has been blown for years bigger and bigger!
As for all the bubbles time came and it has exploded. One year ago I believe most of us did not know/recognize how bad was and especially how bad going to be! Not only Economy but as well the Bank system has collapsed.

Only because of the huge Money spending of many governments we luckily just broke our backbone. Obviously the FAT Years gone and it will take many years to bring them back. Even though unemployment is increasing (which will continue) it is still much less then what would have been when the governments did not act fast and spend money. In fact we are again in a bubble that will be generated with the money that countries now spending domestically. That is a temporary solution but I believe it has save us to face the 3rd world war.

Nevertheless I hate to say that now but; we might still see couple of small wars in next few years.

[Limlin]

If you want the economy becoming better and better, the only thing you have to do is consumption, consumption and consumption. Millionaires are consuming and the consumption plays an important role in driving economic growth.

[leobox1]

Now most of us find out that we were living in a beautiful bubble which has been blown for years bigger and bigger!
As for all the bubbles time came and it has exploded. One year ago I believe most of us did not know/recognize how bad was and especially how bad going to be! Not only Economy but as well the Bank system has collapsed.

Only because of the huge Money spending of many governments we luckily just broke our backbone. Obviously the FAT Years gone and it will take many years to bring them back. Even though unemployment is increasing (which will continue) it is still much less then what would have been when the governments did not act fast and spend money. In fact we are again in a bubble that will be generated with the money that countries now spending domestically. That is a temporary solution but I believe it has save us to face the 3rd world war.

Nevertheless I hate to say that now but; we might still see couple of small wars in next few years.



how does it save 3rd world war? this is interesting..

[newuser888]

If you want the economy becoming better and better, the only thing you have to do is consumption, consumption and consumption. Millionaires are consuming and the consumption plays an important role in driving economic growth.

Well, only if there is stupid nations of slaves prepared to lend you the money to buy their product. This can't just go on forever.

I'll like to just consume without working hard for my entire life. Anybody wants to lend me the money to do that? :D

[Bulldog]

how does it save 3rd world war? this is interesting..

History shows us starting point and main reason of the first and Second World War was great recession and Great depression.!!!

In such Economic disaster situation people tent to protect domestic interest. That of course leads to increased political and national extremism. When unemployment increases in such that peopled can’t feed them self and wealth is melting away, Governments running out of funds will naturally lead to instability of the entire system. Result of such situation is almost natural in human nature which is to go to war.

[leobox1]

History shows us starting point and main reason of the first and Second World War was great recession and Great depression.!!!

In such Economic disaster situation people tent to protect domestic interest. That of course leads to increased political and national extremism. When unemployment increases in such that peopled can’t feed them self and wealth is melting away, Governments running out of funds will naturally lead to instability of the entire system. Result of such situation is almost natural in human nature which is to go to war.

ah i see.. interesting... sorry not to argue just for discussion.. isnt ww2 started because hilter was not happy about Germany defeat in ww1?

[Limlin]

Well, only if there is stupid nations of slaves prepared to lend you the money to buy their product. This can't just go on forever.

I'll like to just consume without working hard for my entire life. Anybody wants to lend me the money to do that? :D

Get job and earn mony then you can comsume. That's a circle. But it seems that most people can't play that cause they cna't even start-unemployed.....We have borrowed much money from other countries, aren't we?

[leobox1]

EUR/USD is close to 1.5 today.

What a ride since last year.. down hit bottom and almost recovered now...

[Bulldog]

ah i see.. interesting... sorry not to argue just for discussion.. isnt ww2 started because hilter was not happy about Germany defeat in ww1?

No it is fine, I just worried we might bore few people. Anyhow Well Hitler has been elected by the German people. Even though many disagree with his opinion and many fear his thoughts. The catastrophic economical situation has lead people to think and behave more in national extremism. Millions of Millions people were unemployed! People really did not have any food!! I mean people were so desperate that they had to boil the potatoes skins for hours to make kind of soup and it was not the worse they had. Anyhow People that support him to be elected were not only working class people but as well upper classes!!

He has promised to people food, work and back to golden age of Arier /Aryan (Pure blood)!! At the beginning he has hold really his Promises!!! He build roads, he build bridges, He build up the heavy Industry. He has build up high-tech Engineering! With that he has put back again millions of people back to work!! In fact Germany was booming! Now we know what was his plan doing those and how he financed all the things even the German Government was bankrupt. Anyhow most German people did not care (look away) as they had a Job and food on the table!!

[The Reverend Gridlock]

http://fc09.deviantart.com/fs47/f/2009/194/7/8/Zombie_Hitler_by_ZombieToaster.jpg

[leobox1]

No it is fine, I just worried we might bore few people. Anyhow Well Hitler has been elected by the German people. Even though many disagree with his opinion and many fear his thoughts. The catastrophic economical situation has lead people to think and behave more in national extremism. Millions of Millions people were unemployed! People really did not have any food!! I mean people were so desperate that they had to boil the potatoes skins for hours to make kind of soup and it was not the worse they had. Anyhow People that support him to be elected were not only working class people but as well upper classes!!

He has promised to people food, work and back to golden age of Arier /Aryan (Pure blood)!! At the beginning he has hold really his Promises!!! He build roads, he build bridges, He build up the heavy Industry. He has build up high-tech Engineering! With that he has put back again millions of people back to work!! In fact Germany was booming! Now we know what was his plan doing those and how he financed all the things even the German Government was bankrupt. Anyhow most German people did not care (look away) as they had a Job and food on the table!!


ah ok .. now i understand.. thank you..

anyway friday's round of profit taking was crazy! like on the euro/usd

From bloomberg:

"The dollar’s “trough” will be “slightly deeper” than previously estimated, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said in a research report this week, forecasting it will depreciate to $1.55 versus the euro in three and six months before recovering to $1.35 in a year. That compares with previous forecasts of $1.45 in three and six months. "

seems like the worldwide rally on the equities are still moving along.. wow.. look at oil.. gold..

[leobox1]

oh well USD is fighting back... risk aversion.. falling stocks.. correction is here i guess

[leobox1]

looking at this thread, we are almost one year on from the one year on thread and guess what...

IT IS STILL PRETTY MUCH THE SAME ... lol deficits deficits deficits

just that the limelight is now EURO

[galaxys]

And if you would have taken the advice to buy low & sell high, then you would be rich! :D