[TECH OPINION] When will phone SoC/Processor technology stabilize?
When do you think phone processor tech will stabilize with software? Moore's laws?
It's apparent SoC, GPU development and technology will continue, but processors, just like desktops and notebooks do, are bound to start seeing that point where gains are insignificant to the average user.
From 2008 to 2012, we've seen a lot happen. My recollection of it starting from:
2008: G1 was released, 528mhz MSM7201A
2009: Nothing major until the Hero, under MSM7200A, even then was major/minor depending on how you look at it
2010: S1 QSD8250 / OG Desire released, was a reigning champion GSM wise as well as the Nexus One. That was until S2 MSM7x30's came out. CDMA Evo 4G, G2, Desire HD, a lot of which are the "basic smartphones" that still function very adequately today. Samsung just got their gears started somewhere in this time.
2011: In Q3 2011, we start seeing dual-cores becoming the market standard. Samsung's taken a lead in the market penetration with the Exynos SoC's, GNexus, SGS2, are all flagship phones.
2012: So far it seems the S4 (One series) chipsets had the lead for the first half, and we start seeing quad cores. That is until Exynos 4 just entered the fray. We are already seeing 1.5ghz this year
It's not a doubt we will see more penta/hexa or some other maximizations (maybe even octas) just sometime the next year or two, but at that point is that even needed to browse the web, check email and run some general apps? A good chunk of cellphone users probably do not play games or processor-intensive tasks, just as a good majority of users in reality are still using core2duo's or core2quads without much problems in daily use seeing no need to upgrade to i7 architectures - games and other major multimedia applications aside.
Personally if I had to venture a guess, once SoCs reach 2.0+ dual or quad cores, this is the breaking point to where upgrading can only benefit for hardcore enthusiasts or app/game fanatics. That doesn't seem too long in the future, as this could possibly by the end of this year.