FORUMS

Has Corona Virus (covid 19) hit close to home yet?

49 posts
Thanks Meter: 5
 
By Deaddpool, Member on 17th March 2020, 01:54 AM
Post Reply Email Thread
19th March 2020, 09:10 PM |#11  
Timmmmaaahh's Avatar
Forum Moderator
Flag Bruges
Thanks Meter: 6,465
 
More
Belgium here and we're on what they call a Lockdown light. We can only go outside to:
  • Go to work (if it's essential. when possible to work from home, it's obligatory)
  • Go to the store
  • Get money from an ATM
  • Go to the doctor
  • Help vulnerable people
  • Get some exercise like running, cycling, etc. (alone, with family members or with one friend if a distance of 1.5m is respected at all times)
All shops are closed, except:
  • Food stores, including night shops
  • Shops that sell mainly animal food
  • Pharmacies
  • News paper shops
  • Gas stations
  • Hair dressers (max of 1 customer at a time)
Conditions shops need to adhere to:
  • Social Distancing: people need to stay 1.5m apart from each other
  • In supermarkets there can only be 1 customer per 10m² and they can only be present for 30 minutes
  • Food stores can be open from 7AM to 10PM
  • Night shops must close at 10PM
Misc:
  • All bars/restaurants/etc. are closed, take-away is still allowed unless it causes large cues
  • Local markets are forbidden unless they are essential for food supply
  • Hotels can still be open but may not provide access to a bar or any other space that brings people together
  • Schools are open but only for day care (focused for people working in health care), no lessons are given
  • ...
Confirmed: 1,795
Deaths: 21
Recovered: 31

It's been pretty crazy but manageable so far. The inexplicable rush for toilet paper has been a big deal here as well. What is up with that? They can starve to death but really need to be able to wipe their tushie for the next 6 months? lol. It all feels so unreal. It's like we've entered World War 3 but we're all fighting a common but invisible enemy.

I went out on a run yesterday and there were still quite a few people out and about getting some exercise or simply some fresh air. There was a massive amount of respect, honoring the social distancing and noticed that the younger folk always went out of the way for the elderly.

My wife works for the 112 emergency central and it's been true madness up there at times. I heard of 1.000 seconds of waiting time on the 'doctors on duty' weekend lines.

@Deaddpool Give my best to your wife as I have the utmost respect for everyone working in health care these days. Now more than ever, they are the true heroes of the world! Wishing the best for you and your family.
19th March 2020, 09:44 PM |#12  
mark manning's Avatar
Senior Moderator - Illuminati Confirmed
Flag Nusquam et ubique
Thanks Meter: 13,508
 
Donate to Me
More
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spaceminer

I'm in the US. The only thing that concerns me is being able to find diapers and TP when I need it because of all the hoarding people are doing. Barring that, my level of concern here in the states is a solid zero.

I really love math and when you plug in the death toll vs the infection count, it's probably less dangerous than the flu. Obviously other countries will end up with different results. This is just using info for the US, so keep that in mind.

The most recent numbers I can find are,

Infections: 9,486
Deaths: 155

When you plug this into a calculator, I'll admit it looks kinda bad.

155 x 100 ÷ 9,486 = 1.63% ← This is the perceived death rate here.

And here's why it's nothing to panic over. Most people with mild symptoms, or no symptoms at all, simply won't be tested (unless they die), so the actual number of infections is definitely much higher. How high is it? We don't know exactly, but the estimates I've seen range from 200,000 to 500,000 infections . So let's use those numbers and see how bad the estimates are.

155 x 100 ÷ 200,000 = 0.07% ← This is our high end for the estimated death rate. Far lower than the flu or common cold.

And as the estimated number of infections goes up, the death rate drops accordingly. If 500,000 people are actually infected, then the death rate is way smaller.

155 x 100 ÷ 500,000 = 0.03% ← This is our low end estimate.

If you don't have a chronic health condition, or you're not over 60yrs old, then you really don't have much to worry about in my opinion. Wash your hands a bit more, avoid at risk people when going about your day if possible. Don't lose your head in the process. 99% of confirmed cases have been mild thus far. (Symptoms no worse than a cold, or allergies.)


The problem is your math is very flawed which is surprising from someone that claims to know math the way that you do. But it is also a common mistake from many that haven't taken the time and done enough research to properly construct an accurate math projection. I am not saying any of this to pick on you but rather to educate you.

I pay very close attention to the news about the virus and yes, there are definitely a significant amount of cases we don't know about, which is primarily due to lack of testing, but official estimates are nowhere the numbers you have above.

As of writing this, the US has 11,689 and rising by the hour. That doesn't seem like very many but just 10 days ago we had about 680 cases. Every 2.5 cases rise exponentially. That means in 2 weeks' time (assuming current trends continue) the US will have around 67,000 known cases. and in 3 weeks 100,800 and these are extremely conservative numbers due to the number of different cities and states seeing outbreaks simultaneously. We are prob looking at 250,000 to 500,000 infection in a month's time unless quarantine efforts begin to flatten the curve. The reason this happens is that 1 people think like you and don't take it seriously and 2 people spread the virus unknowingly due to mild or no symptoms.

Another reason your math is flawed is the average time from first symptoms to death is roughly 14 days and up to 28 days. Therefore comparing the current number of deaths to the current cases amount is an extremely inaccurate way to get a perceived death rate. Official estimates are around a 3.5% death rate but it is very hard to know for sure just like you said above. If you look at Italy, their death rate is around 7% currently and they have one of the best health systems in the world. I read a report today, that doctors at one hospital stopped counting the dead bodies.

Italy is a peek into the future if people in the States don't take this seriously. About 1 in 20 cases, no matter your age, and 1-10 or less for older folk develop serious to critical symptoms. Under normal circumstances, those cases should all be cured but they do take around a month to fully heal. The problem that we will face very soon is health systems being overrun just like they are in Italy. Italy doctors are having to choose who lives and dies via triage protocols. While it is true the older you are the worse it can be, but that doesn't mean younger people are not at risk. France as of about 5 days ago had 300 critical cases for people under the age of 60. I am sure that number has since risen just like every other number. So in a month and a half's time, we are looking at 25 to 50 thousand ICU cases or roughly 50% of capacity if it was even distributed (which it won't be).

The 2 biggest problems the US is facing right now is denial and a bunch of people thinking they are smarter than the professionals. Let's put it this way...

The CDC estimates somewhere between 200,000 and 2.1 million dead with 500,000 being the most probable by the time this is over. That is assuming containment efforts fail of course. This means you WILL know people who have died as our morgues fill up. To put this in perspective, 30,000 people died in the US last year from the flu. But hey, you're good at math so you know better than the virologists and epidemiologists even though you seemed to fail to understand exponential math while doing your calculations.

Oh, and uh, by the way, currently younger people have a large portion of ICU cases from the coronavirus in the US

https://www.washingtonpost.com/healt...-new-cdc-data/
19th March 2020, 10:47 PM |#13  
Timmmmaaahh's Avatar
Forum Moderator
Flag Bruges
Thanks Meter: 6,465
 
More
Quote:
Originally Posted by mark manning

(...) The 2 biggest problems the US is facing right now is denial and a bunch of people thinking they are smarter than the professionals. (...)

IKR! The ignorance and dismissal I see in so many people is just baffling. I've had a few arguments with people that have a more "liberal view" on the regulations our government wants us to follow. I believe the main issue is that many people refuse to believe problems if they can't see or experience them properly. It's sad to realize that for many people this will only become a real problem when a loved one dies. At that point it's likely far too late to start taking it seriously.

By the way, if we do the aforementioned math on mainland China we get ((3,249 * 100) / 81,155) 4% and it's not over just yet...
19th March 2020, 11:11 PM |#14  
Spaceminer's Avatar
Senior Member
Flag Omicron Persei 8
Thanks Meter: 482
 
Donate to Me
More
@mark manning

I explicitly stated the numbers were for the US and that other countries will have different results. Some countries are definitely much worse than others. At the time of writing that, those were the numbers available. They get updated daily here. When I used estimates, I also explicitly stated that they were just that, estimates. My math with the numbers I had at the time is perfectly correct. Using the numbers they updated with today, it puts the death rate 1.33% here, which is lower than yesterday. I am again, speaking only of the US in the above statement. I used John's Hopkins data tracker for my math. Which includes reports from the CDC, the WHO, and our state/local health departments. There were 13,159 confirmed cases in the US at the time of writing this, and 176 deaths.

Source: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
20th March 2020, 12:25 AM |#15  
So, sh!t just got more real here.

The governor of my state just ordered all non life sustaining businesses to be shut down effective immediately.

https://www.wgal.com/article/all-non...pread/31789626

Unfortunately, my place of employment is considered non life sustaining. So after tomorrow, I'm laid off.

This is like a bad dream I can't wake up from. We are witnessing history unfold before our very eyes.

I wish you all the best and may you and your families be safe.
20th March 2020, 02:09 AM |#16  
mark manning's Avatar
Senior Moderator - Illuminati Confirmed
Flag Nusquam et ubique
Thanks Meter: 13,508
 
Donate to Me
More
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spaceminer

@mark manning

I explicitly stated the numbers were for the US and that other countries will have different results. Some countries are definitely much worse than others. At the time of writing that, those were the numbers available. They get updated daily here. When I used estimates, I also explicitly stated that they were just that, estimates. My math with the numbers I had at the time is perfectly correct. Using the numbers they updated with today, it puts the death rate 1.33% here, which is lower than yesterday. I am again, speaking only of the US in the above statement. I used John's Hopkins data tracker for my math. Which includes reports from the CDC, the WHO, and our state/local health departments. There were 13,159 confirmed cases in the US at the time of writing this, and 176 deaths.

Source: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Well again, the time from first symptoms to death is on average 14 days
Source: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/...jmv.25689?af=R

And you can see that 14 days ago the US had 138 cases in total.
Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I understand how you are calculating your numbers but you aren't taking in to account the time span of the COVID-19 disease that the SARS-CoV-2 virus creates. There is more to it than calculating cases vs deaths especially when the disease plays out over weeks to a month or so and that the vast majority of US cases have come in the past few days.
20th March 2020, 03:00 AM |#17  
TravisBean's Avatar
Senior Member
Digital Domain
Thanks Meter: 127
 
More
Okay so instead of manipulating mathematical statistics to support a particular point of view, let's ask this question:
In Korea where we've seen the most drastic measures taken to date, how many people have actually died there?
Compare that to Korea's population and perhaps we can get a better understanding of actual/realistic statistics.
20th March 2020, 03:07 AM |#18  
mark manning's Avatar
Senior Moderator - Illuminati Confirmed
Flag Nusquam et ubique
Thanks Meter: 13,508
 
Donate to Me
More
Quote:
Originally Posted by TravisBean

Okay so instead of manipulating mathematical statistics to support a particular point of view, let's ask this question:
In Korea where we've seen the most drastic measures taken to date, how many people have actually died there?
Compare that to Korea's population and perhaps we can get a better understanding of actual/realistic statistics.

Sure but the problem is Korea only has 9,000 cases which the US surpassed just yesterday and fewer than half the deaths the US already has. The best numbers to look at statistically speaking are the Chinese numbers and their death rate was 3.5% roughly and based on the insane testing they put their citizens through in order to combat the outbreak, they are likely very accurately now that everything has subsided there. The next most inflicted country will be Italy and theirs is 7%. In about 2 or 3 days' time, the US will be the 3rd highest country in terms of infection numbers. We won't know what our numbers are going to be like for a while but one thing is for sure, they won't be like Korea's
20th March 2020, 03:58 AM |#19  
Neo's Avatar
Senior Moderator / Moderator Committee / Inactive Recognized Developer / Un-Recognized Hacker - Free Your Mind
Flag The Matrix
Thanks Meter: 33,658
 
More
Quote:
Originally Posted by Deaddpool

So I'm surprised there's not been threads like this already and I know this is a site about making your phones kewl.....but this is the dreaded off-topic area.....so I'm gonna allow it.

Has this apparent global pandemic affected you directly yet? I'm guessing it has hit us all in some way or another by now?

For me, we've been touched by it already and I suspect my family will get hit harder by it eventually. Here's how/why....



- The Wife is a nurse at a hospital and will surely been facing covid 19 face to face sooner than later. And unfortunately her hospital is a bit of a mess, so I suspect it will sweep through the place fast and furious and I can't imagine she will be unscathed. So yes, my home will likely host the Corona at some point.

- I'm in construction and deal with people daily, and so I am sure to come face to face with an infected person/people before too long. Hopefully my 20 times a day hand sanitizing will mean something?

- folks in my area have lost every last marble and are hoarding everything they can...leaving people in need SOL for finding toilet paper, hand sanitizer, bread, bottled water, meat, soup, baby food and just about every other essential item. Though...i find it funny. Cause if the poop really hits the fan... I know several hoarders that I'll be relieving of their supplies all within walking distance. Lol

- My wife will likely have to nurse through the worst of times, should they come....cause that's what she signed on for. But me, I'll just be told to stay home, earning exactly zero dollars an hour and probably digging a financial hole we will find extremely hard to crawl out of.

- its March break here, so my wee ones are at home. Plus the school board here has said school will remain closed 2 more weeks after March break....so that is good. The kids get to stay home and stay away from the other little germ magnets they associate with!

Anyway....that is how this pandemic has and could hit my family. I'll just say this....before you contribute to cleaning stores out of essential items...take a second to think about others and maybe just get what you need for now and leave some for the rest of us.

Edit: To the amazing super awesome moderators of this great site...if you're maybe thinking this topic isn't right for this site and about to click the delete or close button....perhaps reconsider and think that some here may wanna share feelings on this topic anonymously so to speak...and maybe share fears or hopes they have with the faceless here...rather than "real" people in their lives that don't need to hear about their insecurities? For me, I know I put on a brave face in person....but I'm scared a little too....but I want my family feeling confidence, so I don't dwell on these things I've said with them. Thanks my Mod friends!

Hey man! I’m interested to know how y’all fair through this for sure. It’s true that the impact is felt everywhere and certainly in more areas than others. We will get through it though
20th March 2020, 07:07 AM |#20  
mark manning's Avatar
Senior Moderator - Illuminati Confirmed
Flag Nusquam et ubique
Thanks Meter: 13,508
 
Donate to Me
More
Overseas whispers of today will be the nightmares of tomorrow


20th March 2020, 08:55 AM |#21  
Timmmmaaahh's Avatar
Forum Moderator
Flag Bruges
Thanks Meter: 6,465
 
More
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spaceminer

...When I used estimates, I also explicitly stated that they were just that, estimates...

I think what Mark is trying to say is that these kind of estimates, no matter how well they are intended, are dangerous. The expert numbers out there are more profound estimates that take all the right numbers into account. It's dangerous to make our own more optimistic assessments because that could make people believe it isn't all that bad. But it really is. Hundreds of thousands of lives are at stake, if not millions. All we have to do to prevent a worst case scenario is stay at home for maybe a month. Limit ourselves to necessary movements to only. Uphold strict hygiene guidelines and respect social distancing. Or as your president puts it: SOCIAL DISTANCING!

Check this: https://youtu.be/_066dEkycr4

Wrapped with delicious Fajita
Post Reply Subscribe to Thread

Guest Quick Reply (no urls or BBcode)
Message:
Previous Thread Next Thread
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes