Wow. Great explanation. Thanks!
I agree that Sam will just change the libs rather than release a FW rev for their emmc. But one can always hope.......
To clarify, the lockup/superbrick bug is ultimately in the EMMC firmware. This is hardest to change and I doubt we will see a newer EMMC firmware for our EMMC chips.
Given that, there are 2 likely places they will "workaround" the issue:
1) in the kernel mmc driver
2) in libext4_utils.a which is linked into utilities like recovery
I don't think they will put the workaround in the kernel mmc driver. The GB kernel mmc driver called mmc_erase() also, it just wasn't invoked by wipe data/factory reset so the EMMC firmware bug never got triggered. If by some chance, they put the workaround in the mmc driver, then all recoveries would be rendered "safe" when packed with the kernel with the workaround in the mmc driver. This would be the case even if the Recovery binaries were not recompiled.
If they put the workaround in libext4_utils.a (which would essentially be backing out the ICS change) that would also workaround the problem, but only for Recoveries that are relinked/compiled against the libext4_utils.a that has the workaround. It is my opinion Samsung will put the workaround in here.
We'll know for sure once the source is released. I just got tired of waiting so wanted to look into the issue in more detail and consider the different places the workaround could show up.
By looking into the issue I also realized that if Samsung is "working around" the problem in the userspace libraries (#2 above), then there is no reason people who are building CWM/custom recoveries to wait for Samsung. They can make a change in their own source tree right now to implement a workaround.
I hope my analysis of the issue is accurate. If someone feels I'm reading this wrong, please feel free to add your comments.