I was right. From the Sony Mobile Blog:
Starting from today (13th April), we’re beginning the Sony software upgrade including the uplift to Android 4.0 Ice Cream Sandwich for our 2011 Xperia™ smartphones.
The software will initially be made available for
Xperia arc S, Xperia neo V and Xperia ray for consumers in Sweden, Denmark, Iceland, Finland and Norway. For the above models, the software rollout will continue over the next 4-6 weeks, becoming available in other global markets – we will update you here on the blog when additional markets can upgrade.
You’ll be able to see when the software kit (customized specific to your operator and handset) is ready on our support community;
http://talk.sonymobile.com – please continue to check in if your kit is not yet listed, as it will be updated when new kits become available.
In order to upgrade your 2011 Xperia smartphone you will need to connect to a PC or Mac – please visit
http://www.sonymobile.com/update and follow the instructions.
Following on,
Xperia arc, Xperia PLAY, Xperia neo, Xperia mini, Xperia mini pro, Xperia pro, Xperia active and Sony Ericsson Live with Walkman will receive their scoop starting from the
end of May/early June*.